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Freshwater Biology

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Freshwater Biology's content profile, based on 12 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Pumping stations negatively affect the distribution of critically endangered European eel (Anguilla anguilla); a landscape-scale study using environmental DNA metabarcoding

Monaghan, A. I. T.; Griffiths, N. P.; Sellers, G. S.; Lawson Handley, L.; Nunn, A. D.; Hänfling, B.; Macarthur, J. A.; Wright, R. M.; Cattaneo, M.; Bolland, J. D.

2026-09-01 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.28.746846 medRxiv
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Context Pumping stations pose a threat to fish globally through land use change, habitat fragmentation and entrainment risk, with the catadromous and critically endangered European eel particularly impacted. Objectives/methods Establish, model, assess and understand the present-day distribution of European eel and resident fishes in 152 pumping station catchments in a once extensive wetland (The Fens) using eDNA metabarcoding (855 samples over two and half years), with specific focus on anthropogenic influences on hydrological connectivity and habitat quality. A removal survey design maximised confidence in negative results while minimising time and consumable costs. Results Eel occurrence upstream of pumping stations was low (occupancy = 28.3%) and positively associated with catchment area, fish species richness and natural hydrological connectivity (gravity drainage or flooding) and negatively associated with distance from the tidal limit. Fish species richness replaced catchment area and improved model performance, potentially acting as a biotic indicator of habitat quality and connectivity. Pumped catchments with manually operated upstream water transfers had reduced eel presence, potentially linked to the direction of water flow or the timing of operation. By contrast, fish species richness increased in these catchments during summer, suggesting displacement into unsuitable long-term habitats. Physical habitat maintenance had no detectable effect on eel occurrence or fish species richness. Conclusions This study provides the first landscape-scale assessment of European eel distribution and drivers of occurrence in pumped river catchments. The highly novel and comprehensive insights have implications for European eel conservation as well as infrastructure and catchment management, including compliance with legislation (EC Regulation No. 1100/2007).

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Red and blue light cues drive contrasting remodeling of lipophilic metabolites and photophysiology in natural benthic diatom biofilms

Desparmet, A.; Lavaud, J.; Jesus, B.; Medico, A.; Hubas, C.

2026-09-01 cell biology 10.64898/2026.08.30.748109 medRxiv
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Intertidal mudflats are low hydrodynamic energy environments hosting microphytobenthic communities that experience strong spatiotemporal variability in light regimes, including changes in spectral quality and light intensity that can lead to cellular photooxidative stress. To cope with these fluctuations, autotrophs exhibit diverse and highly plastic adaptations that are often species-dependent and shaped by their ecological niches. This study investigates photophysiological responses and metabolic remodeling in a diatom assemblage originating from a natural winter microphytobenthic biofilm under contrasting red and blue light intensities. To this end, photosynthetic parameters were monitored alongside changes in lipophilic metabolites, including untargeted lipids and lipophilic pigments. While few metabolites showed temporal remodeling, rapid and contrasting changes were observed within 30 minutes in response to both spectral quality and light intensity. Red light treatments induced broader remodeling of lipophilic metabolites than blue light, whereas blue light appeared to have a greater impact on photosynthetic parameters. Moreover, red light induced xanthophyll-cycle responses comparable to those observed under blue light at equivalent incident intensity. We discuss these metabolic responses in relation to diatom photoadaptive strategies, placing these findings within the intertidal environmental framework. This work further underlines the importance of understanding rapid metabolic plasticity in coping with light fluctuations, providing new insights into the photoregulatory strategies of natural microphytobenthic communities.

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eDNA reveals urban habitat-specific sorting of a mixed regional fish fauna into distinct biodiversity and life-history assemblages

Zapfe, K. L.; Parker, E.; Elias, D.; Hogue, G. M.; Dornburg, A.

2026-08-31 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.29.748007 medRxiv
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Urbanization is reshaping freshwater ecosystems, with well-documented effects across gradients of land-use change, hydrologic alteration, and habitat degradation. However, how biodiversity is organized among neighboring urban aquatic habitats that differ in hydrologic connectivity, disturbance transmission, residence time, management history, and opportunities for species movement is often less clear. This creates a challenge for interpreting urban fish communities at local scales as species occurrence may reflect both contemporary habitat filtering and historical contingencies including native persistence, interbasin transfer, stocking, and nonindigenous introductions. Here we use eDNA detections, historical records, phylogenetic information, and species trait data to investigate the fish assemblages of the Charlotte metropolitan region. We detect a highly mixed fauna that also depicts a strong signature of structured biodiversity profiles across taxonomic, phylogenetic, functional, and life-history dimensions between habitat types. In particular, bounded habitats contained assemblages with larger-bodied species that are fecund and faster to reproduce relative to free-flowing habitats. Species-level occurrence models did not support a simple trait-by-habitat rule. Instead our results demonstrate that urban aquatic habitats can sort historically mixed regional species pools into predictable assemblage-level life-history profiles while simultaneously retaining signatures of evolutionary and historical biogeographic contingency.

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Patterns and Drivers of Diatom Diversity and Biogeography in the North Pacific

Barral, A.; Suzuki, K.; Kikuchi, Y.; Nakaoka, S.-i.; Takao, S.; Nakaoka, S.

2026-08-31 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.30.746603 medRxiv
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Marine diatoms contribute to about 20% of global primary production. We present the first basin-scale, multiyear assessment of diatom communities in the North Pacific, combining taxonomically high-resolution RuBisCO large subunit gene (rbcL) metabarcoding with concurrent environmental measurements. Using a nine-year time series of daily samples resolved at the species level via ~500 bp rbcL fragments, we performed multivariate analyses across biogeographic provinces, identifying significant correlations between community structure and environmental drivers such as temperature and macronutrient availability. We report the prevalence of a previously overlooked centric diatom species in the North Pacific, Eunotogramma lunatum, which appears to be near-dominant even in subarctic high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll waters where pennate diatoms are typically favored. These results demonstrate the power of rbcL for large-scale ocean monitoring and provide a critical baseline for future studies of diatom population dynamics, climate change impacts, and ecosystem resilience in a key marine region.

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Rapid isothermal amplification of diatom rbcL from eDNA and eRNA reveals their abundance and photosynthetic physiology

Verret, F. G.; Hartle-Mougiou, K.; Chantzaras, C.; Peltekis, A.; Margiotta, F.; Sarno, D.; Cardini, U.; Alba, M.; Pizziol, V.; Markopoulos, I.; Papadopoulou, I.; Percopo, I.; Tramontano, F.; Maselli, M.; Novellino, A.; Psarra, S.; Montresor, M.; Mowlem, M. C.; Gizeli, E.; Valiadi, M.

2026-08-31 microbiology 10.64898/2026.08.30.748096 medRxiv
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Diatoms are major contributors to marine primary production, yet current approaches for monitoring their abundance and function rely on coarse satellite chlorophyll estimates or sparse cell count and carbon fixation measurements. Molecular markers are a promising approach for high-resolution measurement of both abundance and metabolic activity through analysis of environmental DNA (eDNA) and RNA (eRNA). We present an isothermal quantitative recombinase polymerase amplification (qRPA) assay targeting rbcL gene copies and transcripts of marine diatoms, operating at low temperature and producing results in less than 15 min. We demonstrate specificity and calibration across diverse diatom taxa, then apply the assay to eDNA and eRNA samples from the Mare Chiara Long-Term Ecological Research site in the Bay of Naples, Italy, alongside microscopy, chlorophyll, physicochemical, and carbon-fixation data. Diatom rbcL DNA tracked abundance across five orders of magnitude despite seasonal shifts in community composition. Combining molecular and optical data revealed increased cellular rbcL copies and chlorophyll in low-light winter populations, suggesting enhanced photosynthetic capacity despite lower abundance. Furthermore, rbcL RNA reflected total carbon fixation rates and identified populations with differing carbon fixation activity. These results support rapid, RPA-based rbcL quantification as a robust approach for biomolecular ocean observing.

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Historical squid biomass increase is not explained by rising temperature but rather by loss of top predators.

van Denderen, P. D.; Andersen, K. H.; Denechere, R.

2026-09-01 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.30.748117 medRxiv
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Squid abundance has been reported to increase globally between 1970 and 2010. This increase has been hypothesized to result from two primary factors: the loss of top predators due to overfishing and rising ocean temperatures. The decline in apex predators may lead to the expansion of squid populations either through reduced predation pressure or diminished competition with juvenile predators. Concurrently, increased temperatures could enhance the somatic growth rates of squid, thereby accelerating their population growth. However, empirically disentangling the impacts of predator loss and temperature on squid biomass remains challenging, especially in a food-web context. In this study, we used a size- and trait-based model of upper trophic levels that resolves the ecosystem structure -- biomass and trophic interactions of fish and squid -- for varying depth, temperature, and secondary production, to investigate two hypotheses of the historical expansion of squid, i.e., the effects of predator depletion from fishing and rising temperatures on squid biomass. Our model reveals that intensified fishing of squid predators -- specifically large demersal fish in shelf systems and large pelagic fish in open oceans -- leads to a slight increase in squid biomass. Conversely, elevated temperatures are associated with a decline in squid biomass. This temperature-driven reduction in biomass is attributed to an increased metabolism of squids beyond the available food supply. If historic overfishing on large marine predators continues to be curtailed, we expect a corresponding reduction in global squid biomass and fisheries potential, which could be further exacerbated by rising temperatures.

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GLP-1/GIP Uptake, Indication, and Access Pathways Among US Adults in the Understanding America Study

Chaturvedi, R. R.; Gracner, T.; Perez-Arce, F.; Suen, S.-c.; Jin, J.; Orriens, B.; Pacula, R. L.; Sexton Ward, A.; Haile, R.; Kapteyn, A.

2026-09-02 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361368 medRxiv
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Importance: Evidence on GLP-1/GIP therapies is largely derived from trials enrolling selected populations or medical records that miss utilization outside healthcare channels. No nationally representative cohort has characterized real-world uptake, indications, and access. Objective: To characterize GLP-1/GIP prevalence, indication, clinical profile, and access. Design: Prospective cohort study with three GLP-1/GIP surveillance waves (March 2024, December 2024, October 2025). Setting: The Understanding America Study, an address-based, nationally representative panel of approximately 15,000 US adults aged 18+ years initiated in 2014. Participants: UAS participants responding to at least one surveillance wave (n=9150). Exposures: GLP-1/GIP use status (never vs any use, comprising current and former use), self-reported primary indication (diabetes, weight loss, or other), and access pathway (traditional vs non-traditional). Main Outcomes and Measures: Survey-weighted prevalence of GLP-1/GIP use, overall and by indication and access pathway; sociodemographic, cardiometabolic, treatment, and access characteristics; and smartwatch-derived resting heart rate, heart rate variability, maximum activity heart rate, step count, and sleep duration and variability. Results: Among n=9150 adults (1274 with any use; 60.9% female; median age 53 years), weighted prevalence increased 46%, from 8.2% (March 2024) to 12.0% (October 2025) representing 32 million. Weight-loss indications grew, reaching nearly half of use (4.1% to 5.6%); diabetes-indicated use was stable (5.3% to 5.4%). Users carried high cardiometabolic burden (obesity, 68.2%; diabetes, 53.6%) but diverged by indication: diabetes-indicated users were older (median, 59 vs 49 years), whereas weight-loss-indicated users were more often female (69.9% vs 51.3%) and healthier. One in three users (~9 million) had non-traditional access, especially in weight-loss-indicated users, of whom 33% had no conventional prescription; 41% used compounding, online, or foreign pharmacies; and, 43% lacked coverage. Non-traditional users were five times as likely to report an unlisted, likely compounded formulation (19.8% vs 4.1%). All p<0.05. Conclusions and Relevance: Real-world GLP-1/GIP use has grown rapidly and diversified substantially in indication, access, and population profile. One in 3 users obtained treatment through nontraditional channels largely invisible to claims data, raising long-term safety, efficacy, and coverage questions. GLIMMER provides a public, nationally representative longitudinal evidence base for future payer and provider decisions.

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Are Frontier Large Language Models Safer Than Government-Backed Symptom Checkers for Clinical Self-Triage? A Standardised Vignette Evaluation

Chowdhury, A. R.; Chowdhury, B.

2026-09-02 health informatics 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361908 medRxiv
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Background: Consumer use of AI chatbots for health advice is rising, yet triage safety relative to established services remains unclear. Australia's Healthdirect, a government-backed symptom checker with 2.4 million uses in FY2024-25, remains unevaluated against frontier large language models (LLMs), and whether premium subscriptions improve triage safety remains unexplored. This study compared the triage accuracy and safety of Healthdirect against six LLM configurations across ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, assessed whether paid subscriptions improve triage safety, and characterised each system's error patterns. Methods: Forty-five clinical vignettes from the Semigran et al. benchmark spanning emergency, non-emergent, and self-care categories (15 each) were evaluated across seven systems. Healthdirect was tested following a seven-rule interaction protocol. LLMs were evaluated using first-person patient-language prompts under free-tier and paid-tier conditions. Outcomes were triage accuracy, emergency sensitivity, under-triage, and critical misses, analysed using Cochran's Q, Bonferroni-corrected McNemar tests, Cohen's kappa, and Wilson intervals. Findings: Triage accuracy differed significantly (Cochran's Q = 36.79, p < 0.001). Healthdirect achieved 48.9% accuracy (95% CI 35.0% to 63.0%; kappa = 0.233) versus 73.3% to 86.7% for LLMs (kappa = 0.600 to 0.800). Healthdirect operated under conservative interactive defaults while LLMs received complete information in a single prompt, which may have disadvantaged Healthdirect. Emergency sensitivity was 46.7% versus 80.0% to 86.7% for LLMs. Healthdirect produced two critical misses; no LLM produced any across 270 evaluations (95% CI 0% to 1.4%). When LLMs undertriaged, they recommended GP care rather than self-care. No tier differences were significant (all p > 0.05), and most systems over-triaged self-care cases. Interpretation: Frontier LLMs demonstrated higher triage accuracy and safer error profiles than Healthdirect. All LLMs avoided critical misses; Healthdirect did not. Premium subscriptions did not significantly improve triage safety. These findings support clinical governance decisions about whether LLMs warrant formal evaluation alongside government-backed symptom checkers.

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ECG-based longitudinal risk prediction across diseases and organ systems

ye, y.; Zeng, Z.; Tian, X.; Yuan, Z.; Wang, J.; Zhu, Y.

2026-09-02 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361697 medRxiv
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Artificial intelligence applied to routine electrocardiograms (ECGs) has largely focused on detecting existing disease or predicting individual cardiovascular outcomes. Whether ECGs can support prediction of multiple future diseases across organ systems remains unclear. We developed ECG-RISK, a multitask survival model for 67 incident three-character ICD-10 endpoints using ECG waveforms, demographic characteristics and routinely collected laboratory data from 86,673 MIMIC-IV patients. Discrimination was highest for heart, brain, kidney and lung endpoints, with organ-level C-indices ranging from 0.796 to 0.825, whereas liver and pancreatic endpoints showed lower discrimination. The ECG-only model achieved strong discrimination across most endpoints, whereas the incremental improvement gained by incorporating ECG and laboratory inputs beyond demographic information varied substantially across endpoints. Across the nine exploratory aggregated outcomes, Kaplan Meier curves showed clear separation among model-score tertiles. Discrimination was highest for dementia (C-index, 0.891) and heart failure (C-index, 0.857). These findings support the feasibility of ECG-based longitudinal risk prediction across multiple diseases. External validation and competing-risk analyses are required to assess generalisability and clinical utility.

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Certified large language model-based diagnostic decision support in rheumatology: the ALLIANCE multicentre randomised controlled trial

Kremer, P.; Schlicker, N.; Hasnaj, R.; Bamberger, J.; Witte, T.; Haase, I.; Mayr, A.; Schmidt, C.; Osteras, N.; Baraliakos, X.; Kuhn, S.; Krusche, M.; Knitza, J.

2026-09-02 rheumatology 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361715 medRxiv
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Objectives To evaluate whether access to a certified large language model (LLM)-based clinical decision support system improves physician diagnostic performance in rheumatology compared with conventional diagnostic resources alone. Methods In this multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial, 82 physicians from seven hospitals in two countries were randomised 1:1 to conventional diagnostic resources plus Prof. Valmed or conventional resources alone. Participants assessed three rheumatology vignettes before and after assistance. The primary outcome was top-1 diagnostic accuracy. Secondary outcomes included top-3 accuracy, diagnostic reasoning, confidence, case-processing time and perceived support quality. Results Top-1 accuracy increased from 22.2% to 33.3% in the intervention group and from 23.3% to 35.0% in the control group, with no between-group difference in improvement (adjusted OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.45 to 2.19; p=0.979). Differences in top-3 accuracy, diagnostic reasoning and confidence were also not significant. Assisted case-processing time was substantially shorter with LLM support (94 vs 206 s; adjusted mean difference -112 s, 95% CI -141 to -83; p<0.001). Information timeliness and perceived diagnostic support quality were rated significantly higher in the intervention group. Exploratory analyses showed persistent overconfidence and substantial AI over-reliance. Conclusions Certified LLM-based diagnostic support did not improve diagnostic accuracy compared with conventional resources, but substantially reduced case-processing time and improved perceived support quality. These findings suggest potential workflow benefits while highlighting overconfidence and over-reliance as important safety considerations.

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Optimizing Aqueous Humor Liquid Biopsy: Safety and Performance of a Short, Low-Dead-Space Ophthalmic Needle for Anterior Chamber Paracentesis

Singh, A. M.; Yeh, T.-C.; DeBoer, C.; Al-Moujahed, A.; Lin, J. B.; Smith, S. J.; Sanislo, S.; Janjua, K. A.; Lin, T.-C.; Almeida, D. R. P.; Mruthyunjaya, P.; Mahajan, V. B.

2026-09-02 ophthalmology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361364 medRxiv
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Purpose: To evaluate the safety, procedural performance, sample recovery, and surgeon preference of an ophthalmic needle designed specifically for anterior chamber (AC) paracentesis. Methods: In this multicenter study, AC paracentesis was performed in clinic and operating-room settings using a 32-gauge x 4-mm needle with low dead space. The procedure was evaluated using a standardized physician survey. Prespecified outcomes included procedure-related adverse events (primary outcome), needle entry and handling, aspiration and sample recovery, comparative performance versus a 30-gauge needle, and physician preference for future use. Results: A total of 110 needle uses by eight surgeons were included. No ocular complications occurred, including lens or iris injury, hyphema, AC collapse, wound leak, hypotony, infection, or retinal complication, and no procedure required needle exchange or conversion to another device. Two technical events without ocular sequelae were noted, in which needle entry was partial thickness and did not reach the AC (1.8%; exact 95% CI, 0.2%-6.4%). Physicians rated needle entry, handling and sample recovery as good or excellent. Compared with a 30-gauge needle, the study needle was rated as at least comparable across all assessed domains. All surgeons rated it better or much better for intra-procedural safety and preferred it for future AC taps. Conclusions and Relevance: This short, 32-gauge low-dead-space ophthalmic needle demonstrated a favorable safety profile and was preferred over a 30-gauge needle by all surgeons. As aqueous humor liquid biopsy expands in clinical diagnostics and trials, an ophthalmic-specific needle design may help improve the consistency and safety of aqueous humor collection for molecular analysis and broader clinical use. Keywords: Anterior chamber paracentesis; Aqueous humor; Liquid biopsy; Low dead space; Ophthalmic needle

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Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Combination Therapy of Vamha and Myrha in the Management of PMOS: An Open-Label, Randomized, Multicentre, Comparative, Prospective Clinical Study

Patil, A.; Barathe, R.; Tate, D. M.; Kate, K.; Pande, S.; Gawande, N.; More, A.; Mahadik, S.; Berde, K.; Singhvi, R.

2026-09-02 sexual and reproductive health 10.64898/2026.08.20.26360875 medRxiv
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Introduction: Polyendocrine metabolic ovarian syndrome (PMOS), formerly known as polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), is a common endocrine disorder affecting women of reproductive age. Besides reproductive and metabolic disturbances, PMOS negatively impacts psychological well-being and quality of life. Despite available treatment options, there remains a need for safe and effective therapies that improve both clinical symptoms and fertility outcomes. Aim: To compare the efficacy of VAMHA and MYRHA tablet combination therapy with standard non-hormonal therapy in restoring regular menstruation. Secondary objectives included assessment of ovulation, menstrual symptoms, polycystic ovarian morphology, hormonal and metabolic parameters, anthropometric measures, and skin manifestations. Study Design: Open-label, randomized, multicentre, prospective comparative clinical study. Methods: Seventy-one women with PMOS were randomized to Group A (n=37) or Group B (n=34). Group A received VAMHA and MYRHA tablets (2 tablets each), while Group B received Metformin 500 mg plus Myoinositol 600 mg (1 tablet), twice daily for 180 days. Data were recorded in Case Report Forms. Statistical Analysis: Continuous variables were summarized using mean and standard deviation, while categorical variables were expressed as frequencies and percentages. Appropriate statistical tests, including Chi-square, were used. A p-value [&le;]0.05 was considered significant. Results: Significantly more participants in Group A achieved regular menstrual cycles than Group B (31 vs. 22; p<0.05). Ovulation occurred in 16 participants in Group A compared with 6 in Group B (p<0.05). Both groups showed significant improvement in menstrual irregularity and related symptoms. Significant reductions in Anti-Mullerian Hormone (AMH), fasting insulin, and body mass index (BMI) were observed in both groups (p<0.05). Resolution of polycystic ovarian morphology occurred in 13 participants (38.23%) in Group A and 10 (33.33%) in Group B. Both treatments were well tolerated with no major safety concerns. Conclusions: VAMHA and MYRHA combination therapy was superior to standard non-hormonal therapy in improving menstrual regularity and ovulation. It also produced favourable metabolic, hormonal, and ultrasonographic outcomes, suggesting its potential as a safe and effective option for comprehensive PMOS management and fertility enhancement.

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Burden of fatigue in compensated chronic liver disease: findings from the multinational a:GAP Study

Choudhuri, G.; Akhundova-Unadkat, G.; Naidoo, N.; Morales-Castillo, M.; Guillaume, X.; Duijnhoven, R. G.; Safaei, A.; Swain, M. G.

2026-09-02 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361618 medRxiv
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Background & Aims: Fatigue is a central symptom of chronic liver disease (CLD), substantially impacting health-related quality of life (HRQoL). This study aimed to further understand CLD symptomatology, including fatigue, and its impact on HRQoL from a patient perspective. Methods: Abbott Global Assessment of Patients unmet needs (aGAP) was a multinational, cross-sectional survey in adults with compensated CLD in China, India and Mexico, conducted between July and November 2024. Adult participants who self-reported that they had physician-diagnosed CLD and were experiencing fatigue completed a quantitative survey to assess symptom burden and included three HRQoL patient-reported outcome (PRO) questionnaires (Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System [PROMIS]-29+2, Work Productivity and Activity Impairment - Specific Health Problem version 2.0 [WPAI: SHP], Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory [MFI]). Results: Overall, 505 participants (China: 200; Mexico: 105; India: 200) completed the study. Participants reported that their CLD-related fatigue sometimes, often or always affected their self-esteem/confidence (45.1%) and ability to maintain or acquire new employment (38.6%). Most participants reported moderate (51.3%) or serious (26.9%) fatigue, with 33.5% experiencing fatigue every day or almost every day. Many participants felt their social life was negatively impacted by their fatigue (47.3%) and that there were related financial difficulties (53.9%). Use of validated PRO tools demonstrated severe fatigue (MFI: overall mean [SD] 13.9 [3.4] general fatigue and 13.4 [3.6] physical fatigue) as well as substantial levels of work and activity impairment (WPAI: SHP overall mean [SD] 53.0 [26.4]) and high levels of anxiety, pain interference, depression and sleep interference (PROMIS T-scores [&ge;]54). Conclusions: Fatigue has a substantial impact on HRQoL among adults with CLD across several countries, highlighting a global unmet need for targeted interventions to effectively identify and manage the condition.

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3D ultrasound fascicle tractography for objective muscle architecture analysis.

Tecchio, P.; Schlaffke, L.; Bolsterlee, B.; Hahn, D.; Raiteri, B. J.

2026-09-01 bioengineering 10.64898/2026.08.31.746736 medRxiv
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Muscle architecture shapes muscle function and changes with age, growth, training and disease, yet quantifying three-dimensional (3D) muscle architecture in vivo remains challenging. We introduce a hybrid fascicle tractography approach for freehand 3D ultrasound data that accurately reconstructs 3D muscle fascicles with respect to an objective, anatomically relevant coordinate system defined by the muscle's central aponeurosis. The hybrid approach combines Hessian-based fascicle detection with wavelet-based refinement to generate volumetric fascicle orientations. In a synthetic dataset with known ground truth, fascicle orientations and lengths were estimated with errors of [&le;]2{degrees} and ~1.5%, respectively. In vivo, the approach detected physiologically plausible fascicle lengthening in the human tibialis anterior following a passive plantar flexion rotation, whereas diffusion tensor imaging of the same muscle did not. The proposed method enables anatomically relevant, objective and non-invasive quantification of 3D muscle architecture in vivo, providing a practical framework for applications in clinical and applied muscle physiology.

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An interpretable, formally verified point-of-care ultrasound risk equation for difficult videolaryngoscopy: development and internal validation

Oyarzun-Silva, R. A.; Hernandez-Hernandez, P.; Fernandez-Vaquero, M. A.; De Luis-Cabezon, N.

2026-09-02 anesthesia 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361621 medRxiv
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Background. Videolaryngoscopy still requires adjuncts or hyperangulated rescue in a clinically important minority, and bedside screening discriminates modestly. Point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) of the anterior airway is a promising alternative, but existing prediction models are opaque or assume a pre-specified functional form. We developed and internally validated a parsimonious, fully disclosed POCUS risk equation whose form is recovered from data and whose structural properties are machine-checked by formal proof - to our knowledge the first formally verified clinical risk predictor - following TRIPOD+AI 2024. Methods. In a prospective single-centre, single-operator cohort of 259 adults undergoing elective videolaryngoscopy (no-Easy airway 68/259, 26.3%), Sequentially Thresholded Least Squares with bootstrap stability selection (B=300) screened a 71-term library of nine POCUS features and retained a seven-term logistic equation; a two-term bootstrap-stable model was pre-specified as robustness analysis. Internal validation used 5x10 repeated cross-validation plus temporal and device hold-outs, with pre-specified overfitting and optimism assessments. Five behavioural properties of the deployed equation were machine-checked in Lean 4. Results. Two interactions met the |c|/sigma_c>2 stability criterion: skin-to-epiglottis x skin-to-hyoid-bone distance and tongue volume x sagittal tongue area. The seven-term equation reached a 5x10 cross-validated C-statistic of 0.966 (optimism-corrected 0.968) and held across temporal and device hold-outs (0.94-0.97). Calibration-in-the-large matched prevalence, with cross-validated slope 0.90 attenuating to 0.625 out-of-time; standard recalibration restored 0.92 without loss of discrimination. The pre-specified two-term robustness model reproduced this performance (C-statistic 0.964-0.968; events-per-parameter 34; shrinkage 0.99), confirming the result is not an artefact of the screening stage. Net benefit over a clinical baseline was positive across 10-50% thresholds. All five Lean 4 theorems compiled without sorry. Conclusions. A sparse, formally verified POCUS equation predicts difficult videolaryngoscopy with high internally validated discrimination and quantified, modest overfitting. Because the equation was developed in a single-operator cohort and its inputs are operator-dependent, external validation requires prior harmonisation of the measurement protocol and operator credentialing.

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Evaluating Mean Platelet Volume in relation to Disease Severity in Paediatric Sickle Cell Anaemia: A Cross-Sectional Study in Kwara State, North-Central Nigeria

Oladimeji, F. D.; Adewoyin, A. D.; Oyeleke, K. O.

2026-09-02 hematology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361349 medRxiv
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Background: Sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is characterised by chronic haemolysis, inflammation, platelet activation, and recurrent vaso-occlusive complications. Mean platelet volume (MPV) is a readily available platelet index, but evidence regarding its relationship with disease severity in paediatric SCA remains limited and inconsistent, particularly in African populations. Objective: To evaluate the relationship between MPV and disease severity among children with SCA in Kwara State, North-Central Nigeria. Methods: This hospital-based cross-sectional study included 51 clinically stable children with confirmed SCA consecutively recruited from the paediatric haematology clinic of Children Emergency Specialist Hospital, Ilorin. Complete blood count, including MPV, was performed using a Rayto RT-7600 automated haematology analyser. Disease severity was assessed using a composite clinical and laboratory scoring system based on a previously described method. Pearson's correlation, Spearman's rank correlation, simple linear regression, and the Kruskal-Wallis test were used as appropriate. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. Results: Of 51 participants, 14 (27.5%) had mild, 33 (64.7%) moderate, and 4 (7.8%) severe disease. Mean MPV was 9.34 +/- 0.76 fL (range, 8.0-11.2). Pearson's correlation showed a weak positive, non-significant linear relationship with severity score (r = 0.231, p = 0.103), whereas Spearman's analysis showed a weak positive monotonic association (rho = 0.286, p = 0.042). Regression explained 5.3% of severity-score variation (R2 = 0.053, p = 0.103). MPV did not differ significantly across severity categories (H = 2.163, p = 0.339). MPV correlated inversely with haemoglobin (r = -0.556, p < 0.001) and positively with platelet count (r = 0.307, p = 0.029). Conclusion: MPV showed a weak relationship with disease severity but inconsistent statistical evidence across analyses. The limited explained variance and absence of significant differences between severity categories do not support MPV as a standalone severity marker. Larger longitudinal studies are warranted. Keywords: Sickle cell anaemia; Mean platelet volume; Disease severity; Platelet indices; Paediatric haematology; Cross-sectional study; Nigeria.

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Non-inferior survival and enhanced longevity with initial low-dose versus full-dose enzalutamide: a single-centre real-world prostate cancer study

Gorobets, O.; Vinh-Hung, V.

2026-09-02 oncology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361616 medRxiv
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Background: Prostate cancer enzalutamide treatment is approved at a standard dose of 160 mg daily. Concerns for real-world patients -- older and more fragile than those enrolled in clinical trials -- have prompted consideration of initiating treatment with lower doses, but the long-term efficacy of this approach remains unknown. We evaluate the long-term survival and longevity in patients treated with standard versus upfront low-dose enzalutamide. Methods: Retrospective analysis of 151 patients treated with enzalutamide (102 receiving 160 mg; 49 receiving [&le;]80 mg) between 2014--2021 at the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Martinique, with complete follow-up through end of life (98.7% completeness of follow-up). Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and longevity (attained age). Results: Doses [&le;]80 mg were associated with longer median OS (36.3 vs. 20.7 months), improved restricted mean OS (difference of 0.7 years, p=0.05), and enhanced longevity (median 82.5 vs. 78.3 years, p=0.004). PSA response rate at 12 weeks was higher with lower-dose (71.4% vs. 48.8%, p=0.016). In multivariable models adjusted for prognostic factors, [&le;]40 mg compared with 160 mg was non-inferior regarding OS (HR=0.61, 95% CI 0.36--1.06), superior regarding PFS (HR=0.59, 95% CI 0.35--0.99), and superior regarding longevity (HR=0.48, 95% CI 0.28--0.84). Bone metastasis, poor performance status, PSA response, time to PSA nadir, and disease duration were independent predictors of outcomes. A post-hoc analysis revealed a strong association between dose and physician-prescribing profiles, ranging from "endorse-lowest-dose" to "never-deviate-from-full-dose". Conclusions: Lower doses of enzalutamide were non-inferior to full-dose. Dose-adapted strategies warrant further investigation.

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Maternal cell-free RNA versus combined screening for first-trimester prediction of early-onset preeclampsia: a nested case-control study

Satorres-Perez, E.; Castillo-Marco, N.; Igual, M.; Cordero, T.; Munoz-Blat, I.; Monfort-Ortiz, R.; Marcos-Puig, B.; Simon, C.; Garrido-Gomez, T.; Perales-Marin, A.

2026-09-02 obstetrics and gynecology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361628 medRxiv
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Background. In Europe, first-trimester combined screening with the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) algorithm identifies women at increased risk of preeclampsia who may benefit from personalized aspirin prophylaxis. However, a substantial proportion of early-onset preeclampsia (EOPE) remains undetected at clinically acceptable specificity. Objective. To evaluate the first-trimester performance of MaiRa for early-onset preeclampsia (EOPE) risk stratification by benchmarking it against FMF screening in the same women, characterizing discordant patient-level classification profiles and exploring potential implementation strategies. Study Design. This secondary case-control analysis was nested within the prospective, multicentre PREMOM cohort [NCT04990141], which enrolled women with singleton pregnancies across 14 tertiary hospitals in Spain. First-trimester MaiRa and FMF risk estimates were evaluated in the same 126 pregnant women, comprising 99 uncomplicated controls and 27 EOPE cases, defined by disease onset before 34 weeks. Discrimination was compared using a stratified paired bootstrap analysis of the areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic curves. Performance was assessed at prespecified clinical thresholds, and detection rates were evaluated at fixed false-positive rates. Universal and contingent MaiRa implementation strategies were also evaluated. Results. MaiRa showed greater first-trimester discrimination for EOPE than FMF combined screening (AUC, 0.974 vs 0.900; P=.040) and consistently achieved higher detection rates across fixed false-positive rates. At false-positive rates of 5% and 10%, MaiRa detected 85.2% and 92.6% of EOPE cases, compared with 44.4% and 70.4% for FMF, respectively. Patient-level analysis demonstrated that MaiRa identified 12 of 27 EOPE cases (44.4%) classified as low risk by FMF; these pregnancies generally exhibited less abnormal conventional first-trimester profiles, including fewer maternal risk factors, lower mean arterial pressure and lower uterine artery pulsatility index, yet 8 of 12 (66.7%) subsequently developed severe EOPE. Exploratory implementation analyses showed that universal MaiRa screening achieved the highest EOPE detection, whereas a contingent strategy using FMF for triage and reflex MaiRa testing reduced molecular testing to 35.7% of pregnancies while maintaining 77.8% sensitivity and 97.0% specificity. Conclusion. MaiRa provided greater first-trimester discrimination for EOPE than conventional combined screening and detected additional pregnancies that later developed severe disease despite less abnormal conventional screening profiles. The findings suggest that maternal plasma cfRNA profiling captures biological alterations not fully reflected by combined first-trimester screening and support further prospective evaluation in an independent, unselected obstetric population. Key words: early-onset preeclampsia; first-trimester screening; cell-free RNA; liquid biopsy; Fetal Medicine Foundation algorithm; combined screening; risk stratification; aspirin prophylaxis.

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Measuring Positive Stress Appraisal Among Nursing Students: Development and Psychometric Evaluation of the Nursing Student Positive Stress Scale (NSPSS)

Yan, H.; O'Brien, A. J.; Yoon, S. H.; Shaw, V.; vakavosaki, k.

2026-09-02 nursing 10.64898/2026.08.30.26361779 medRxiv
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Background: Stress research in nursing education has largely focused on distress, stressors, and negative outcomes, although challenging experiences may also support motivation, confidence, learning, and growth when appraised positively. Objective: To develop and evaluate the psychometric properties of the Nursing Student Positive Stress Scale (NSPSS). Design: A methodological instrument development and psychometric evaluation study. Methods: The NSPSS was developed using a deductive, theory-driven approach informed by the transactional theory of stress and coping and positive psychology perspectives. Content validity was assessed by an international nursing expert panel. Psychometric evaluation used national survey data from nursing students in New Zealand. Of 539 responses, 507 were analysed. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were conducted using separate subsamples. Internal consistency was assessed using Cronbach's alpha and McDonald's omega, and convergent validity through correlation with Perceived Stress Scale-10 scores. Results: Content validity was strong (I-CVI = .88-1.00; S-CVI/Ave = .975; S-CVI/UA = .800). EFA identified a dominant factor explaining 41.38% of variance (loadings = .528-.735). CFA supported a two-context Academic and Clinical Positive Stress model with correlated residuals between five parallel item pairs, chi-square(29) = 60.49, CFI = .970, TLI = .954, RMSEA = .063, SRMR = .065. Internal consistency was good (alpha = .839; omega = .843). NSPSS scores correlated negatively with PSS-10 scores (r = -.298, p < .001). Conclusion: The NSPSS demonstrated strong content validity, preliminary evidence of structural and convergent validity, and good internal consistency reliability for assessing positive stress appraisal among nursing students. Further validation in independent samples is warranted.

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Cross-System Meta-Analysis of Machine Learning Predictors Identifies Value-Specific Risk Drivers and Interactions Underlying Acute Kidney Injury

Chan, H. Y.; Li, D.; Yu, A. S. L.; Kellum, J. A.; Fuhrman, D. Y.; Xu, Q.; Chrischilles, E. A.; Cowell, L. G.; Chandaka, S.; Anzalone, A. J.; Kean, J.; McTigue, K. M.; Mosa, A. S. M.; Taylor, B.; Syed, M.; Waitman, L. R.; Hu, Y.; Liu, M.

2026-09-02 nephrology 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361849 medRxiv
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Background: Current understanding of acute kidney injury (AKI) risk factors remains largely descriptive, offering limited precision into how specific biomarker values or physiologic thresholds influence susceptibility. We aimed to synthesize knowledge from machine learning models trained across multiple health systems to identify generalizable, value-specific risk drivers and biomarker interactions contributing to AKI risk. Methods: We analyzed electronic health records (EHRs) from 785,497 adult inpatients between 2010 and 2019 across nine U.S. academic medical centers within PCORnet. Interpretable gradient boosting machine models were independently developed at each health system to quantify predictor-outcome associations. Meta-regression was applied to integrate these site-level results, characterize nonlinear value-risk relationships, and identify bivariate interactions between predictors. Results: Meta-analysis revealed consistent, value-specific risk drivers across health systems. An increase in glucose from 100 mg/dL to 140 mg/dL was associated with a 1.46-fold higher risk of AKI. Chloride and anion gap also demonstrated elevated AKI risk with risk increases overlapping portions of their reference ranges, with anion gap showing a 1.14-fold increase across 4-12 mmol/L and chloride a 1.28-fold increase across 96-100 mEq/L. Electrolytes including potassium, calcium, and sodium showed quadratic associations with AKI risk. Bivariate meta-regression identified interactions between key predictors, highlighting pathways that jointly modulate AKI risk. Conclusion: This cross-system meta-analysis synthesizes machine learning-derived evidence into clinically interpretable knowledge, revealing how specific biomarker ranges and interactions modulate AKI risk. By moving beyond surface-level associations to quantitative, generalizable physiologic thresholds, these findings provide actionable insights to enhance risk stratification and personalized prevention in hospital care.